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- India VIX rises 4.89% to 14.79 from last week’s 14.10
- Slight bounce in it can be a sign of turmoil
- Low volatility indicates that the market is in a bullish trend
- Crude price will remain firm if it stays above Rs 5,200
There may be volatility in the domestic stock market next week. Indications of this are coming from the increase in volatility index this week. This week, the index rose as the days passed. India VIX rose 4.89% to 14.79 from last week’s 14.10. Low volatility indicates that the market is in a bullish trend. A slight jump in this can be a sign of volatility in the market.
Investor confidence shakes in US stock markets
The S&P 500 Volatility Index has gained 32.26% about the shares of America’s giant index. CBOE VIX jumps to one-month high. This suggests that the confidence of investors there about the strength of the US stock market is slightly shaken.
FII was a pure sell for most days of the week
Foreign investors (FIIs) were pure selling for most of the day this week. He did a lot of shopping on the last day of the week. This made him a net buyer of Rs 1,061 crore this week. However, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) remained net sellers at Rs 488 crore. FIIs are now betting selectively in stocks instead of indices.
Gold can go up to Rs 48,200 in a boom
If we talk about the bullion market, this week silver fell by 6.18%, while gold fell by 4.36%. This happened after the US Fed Reserve signaled to raise interest rates until 2023. Lower delivery demand also increased the pressure on gold. Next week gold can remain in the range of Rs 46,000 to Rs 48,200 per ten grams.
Nifty may remain between 15,400 to 16,000 points
Now let’s talk about the stock market. This week’s futures market data shows that bullish trading positions are being reduced. Put call ratio indicates that there is an increase in sell positions in the market. Futures market deals are indicating the Nifty to remain in the range of 15,400 to 16,000 points next week.
Nifty may find resistance at 15,800 points
For the stock market to continue to strengthen, it is necessary that the Nifty remains above 15,600 points. If this happens, it will try to cross the 15,800 point first. If Nifty rises above this level, it will be seen moving towards 15,900 points. If there is a downside, it will get support near the first 15,500 point. If Nifty falls below this, then it will take support at 15,450.
Crude will remain firm if it stays above Rs 5,200
Crude oil, which fuels growth for the economy, gained 2.07% on a weekly basis. In this, a bullish higher high and higher low pattern is being formed for the last four weeks. The expectation of a sharp recovery in the economy is giving strength to crude oil. It is trading at the highest level in several months. If it stays above Rs 5,200 then the crude will remain strong. In the fall, support will be found at Rs 5,100 per barrel.
A few defensive stocks can provide safety amid volatility
Amidst the volatility in the market next week, some defensive stocks may provide some safety. Major stocks like Hindustan Unilever, Jubilant Food, Dabur, Marico and Bajaj Auto may remain active. The strength of the dollar could also lead to a bullish trend in technology stocks. Metal stocks may remain under selling pressure due to weakness in overseas markets and metal commodities. JSW Steel and other steel companies may remain weak.
The market can keep an eye on these events next week
Quarterly results of many big companies including Tata Steel, Infosys, NTPC, Havells, Tata Power, Tata Elxi, State Bank of India are going to come next week. Investors will also be watching the results of market giants Reliance Industries and ONGC, which will contribute significantly in determining the direction of the market. Next Thursday is also the monthly expiry of the futures market for the month of June, due to which the rollover activity can bring volatility in the market.
Chandan Tapadia (Head-Technical & Derivatives Research), Shivangi Sarda (Quantitative Analyst), Motilal Oswal