Coronavirus Forecast India | How Coronavirus (COVID-19) Is Transmitted: Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) Chief Balram Bhargava | No exact mathematical model has been able to predict how Corona spread: ICMR chief


  • According to Dr. Balaram Bhargava, Director General of ICMR, investigation, virus tracking and treatment is the perfect prevention to stop the epidemic.
  • National Health Authority Chief Executive Indu Bhushan says, how a coronavirus would behave in a particular situation cannot be understood from mathematical models

Daily newspaper

Jul 01, 2020, 12:20 PM IST

No model has yet accurately predicted how the corona spread. The country only needs to focus on ways to prevent the epidemic. This is to say that Dr. Balaram Bhargava, Director General of ICMR. According to Dr. Balaram, investigation, virus tracking and treatment is the basic prevention of stopping the epidemic.

Mathematical models only alert
Dr. Balaram said in an interview, no mathematical model can tell which factors are responsible for the spread of corona. Only such idea can be given from such a model as to what can be the best and worst situation for the country so that preparations can be made to improve the health infrastructure.

What is a mathematical model
Mathematical models are used in research. With its help, researchers tell how much effect a thing can have in the future. How much his behavior can change. They are based on estimates. In the case of Corona also, researchers used different mathematical models in their research, but so far no model has been able to give accurate information.

So many models failed
More than 2000 new cases of Kovid-19 were reported in the country on 28 June and the figure reached 546,771. Increasing cases of daily infection have falsified mathematical models predicting corona. Many models predicted that July would be the peak season for Corona. At the same time, according to some models, cases will stop in the country by May-June. Apart from this, it was also said in some that the graph of corona will decrease in India. All these prophecies have failed.

How will the virus change, difficult to understand
According to Indu Bhushan, chief executive of the National Health Authority and Ayushman Bharat-Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana, mathematical models make estimates based on the data that always exists. There are many factors associated with the epidemic that are unknown. How the coronavirus behaves in a particular situation cannot be fully understood.


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