Muslim population in the state is 16 percent and Yadav's population is close to 14 percent. The RJD has been considering it as its traditional vote bank. Out of 243 seats in the state legislative assembly, there are 47 assembly seats (about four dozen) where the Muslim population is between 20 and 40 per cent and this social class determines the victory and victory of the candidates in the elections there.
Conditions like 2010:
Since, the political equations and coalitions in the state are like the 2010 assembly elections. Therefore, it is expected that there will be a voting pattern accordingly. In 2015, the ruling JDU and BJP fought separate elections. Nitish Kumar's party contested along with Lalu Yadav and Congress, but JDU is back with BJP at the moment. In 2010 too, BJP and JDU fought elections together.
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NDA had won 38 Muslim majority seats
If you look at the statistics of the 2010 election results, NDA (BJP-4 and JDU-1) won five out of the 11 seats with more than 40 percent Muslim population. The RJD could win only one seat, while the Congress captured two. These seats were from Seemanchal and Koshi areas, where the most Muslim population is concentrated. There are seven assembly seats with 30 to 40 percent Muslim population. In 2010, the NDA won six of them (BJP-5 and JDU-1) seats.
The state has 29 assembly seats with 20 to 30 percent Muslim population. Of these, the NDA (BJP-16 and JDU-11) won 27. The RJD had won only one seat. The NDA won 38 out of a total of 47 Muslim majority seats.
Anti Incumbency Factor against Nitish too:
However, social equations have changed in the last ten years. Anti-incumbency factor has also emerged against Nitish government. It is believed that after the Modi government's decision to remove triple talaq, Citizenship Amendment Act, Article 370, Muslim votes will be tilted towards the RJD-Congress alliance but Asaduddin Owaisi's party has won 32 of the 22 Muslim majority districts of the state. Has announced to beat the seats on the Vidhan Sabha seats.
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Five years ago, Owaisi denied the people:
Even in 2015, Owaisi's party AIMIM had fielded candidates for six seats but the public rejected them. Later, AIMIM won the by-election in one seat. The party looks excited with this. The special thing is that out of the 32 seats in which Owaisi's party has decided to beat, one third of the seats are currently occupied by the RJD-led Grand Alliance. Seven of them are RJD, two on Congress and one on CPI (ML) MLA and all of them are Muslim faces. In such a situation, if the Owaisi fielded candidates and managed to make inroads among Muslims, then the path of the grand alliance could be difficult.