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- 8 10% Growth Is Necessary For The Economy To Reach The Pre Covid Condition, It Is Difficult To Tell The Time Of Full Recovery
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- The Reserve Bank has estimated GDP growth to be 9.5% for this financial year.
- IMF has talked about this growth, earlier had given an estimate of 12.5%
- Growth may be 6.5-7% in FY2023, then 7-7.5%
India’s economy may reach the pre-Covid level, but when, it is difficult to predict. Along with this, experts also say that this will happen only when GDP growth will be in the range of 8-10%. Experts are able to say this because many economic indicators have come to the pre-pandemic condition.
RBI cuts GDP growth rate forecast from 10.5% to 9.5%
The Reserve Bank last month reduced the GDP growth rate forecast for this fiscal year to 9.5% from 10.5%. Here, on Wednesday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had said that there would be such a growth (9.5%). But, it had earlier forecast a growth rate of 12.5% for the year ending March 2022. Chief Economic Adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian recently said that GDP growth will not be much lower than the RBI’s estimate of 10.5%.
If the growth is as expected, then the GDP loss in FY 2021 will be compensated.
SBI Group Chief Economic Advisor Soumya Kanti Ghosh says, “If the growth estimate is as high as 10.4%, then the GDP loss in FY 2021 will be compensated. But the big question arises that how much loss is permanent in GDP due to the pandemic and how long will it take for GDP to come to the level before Kovid.
Growth may be 6.5% to 7% in FY23, then estimated to be in the range of 7 to 7.5%
Chief Economic Adviser Subramanian had said that several indicators are indicating a recovery in V shape in economic activities. That is, the economy is rising as fast as it had fallen due to the lockdown due to Kovid. According to him, during Kovid, India was the only country whose economy grew for two consecutive quarters. He had also said that the growth could be 6.5% to 7% in FY2023. Then it is estimated to be between 7 and 7.5%.
Fiscal deficit target may remain at 6.8% this fiscal: Subrahmanyan
Subrahmanyan has also said that inflation will remain below 6% in July but may remain above 5% for some time. He said that expenditure has increased on some fronts, but the government will go ahead according to this year’s budget. According to him, the fiscal deficit target for this financial year can be 6.8%. He has also said that the pandemic has put more pressure on the unorganized sector.